It's beginning to look like someone has blinked.
Lets hope so
Lets hope so
-
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Will it be A Russian Christmas?
- Thread starter Duck n Dive
- Start date
Not me. I'm scared I'll miss something.It's beginning to look like someone has blinked.
Lets hope so
Over the last few days most folks have stopped flying into/over Ukraine.
However, Russian carriers continued overflights as normal.
Until today.....
However, Russian carriers continued overflights as normal.
Until today.....
Stop Press..........
Borat is en route to sort it all out
Borat is en route to sort it all out
Unconfirmed reports that 15 mins ago Russian vehicles started to enter Ukraine - I'm really not sure how sound the source is.
It’s on here so it must be true!
RQ-4 drone based at Sigonella ,Sicily. That's the Yank Navy's biggest base on the med. These drones can stay in the air for something like 30+ hours and that flight pattern looks like they're reconnning the borders for unwelcome visitors. I would expect to see a mirrored flight pattern for another one doing the south end of Ukraine looking for sneaky Russians trying to grab all the best sunbathing spots on the beaches.
In my lull between day shift and night shift today I've been looking at this in a little more than passing skim of news stories etc.
In a Michael Fish moment I'll go out on a limb and say Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine!
If correct, various sources say the Ukrainian army is around 250,000 strong.
It's widely reported that the Russians have around 150,000 troops ready in the area.
Even with equipment and technology advantages you just don't go up against an opposition with that disparity.
What I do think is going to happen is the annexation of the eastern provinces which consider themselves Russian.
They are already effectively separated from the rest of the Ukraine with a border controlled by separatists.
There are no Ukrainian troops or police etc in those areas and the two sides regularly exchange small arms/light weapon fire.
Russia will add the regions as they did in the Crimea.
The big difference is this times it's going to have to happen in the full glare of publicity.
In the Crimea it was done by stealth (unbadged/informal) units until they'd already got control. By the time the checkpoints and so on went up they'd got the job done.
So, Russia will say its not invaded Ukraine and everyone else will say it has because its grabbed a bit of it which the Ukraine no longer controls anyway.
In a Michael Fish moment I'll go out on a limb and say Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine!
If correct, various sources say the Ukrainian army is around 250,000 strong.
It's widely reported that the Russians have around 150,000 troops ready in the area.
Even with equipment and technology advantages you just don't go up against an opposition with that disparity.
What I do think is going to happen is the annexation of the eastern provinces which consider themselves Russian.
They are already effectively separated from the rest of the Ukraine with a border controlled by separatists.
There are no Ukrainian troops or police etc in those areas and the two sides regularly exchange small arms/light weapon fire.
Russia will add the regions as they did in the Crimea.
The big difference is this times it's going to have to happen in the full glare of publicity.
In the Crimea it was done by stealth (unbadged/informal) units until they'd already got control. By the time the checkpoints and so on went up they'd got the job done.
So, Russia will say its not invaded Ukraine and everyone else will say it has because its grabbed a bit of it which the Ukraine no longer controls anyway.
And if I, a bear of little brain, can see you don't send up 150,000 against 250,000 why are the West giving the impression that they're all itching to do a Maximus and "at my word unleash hell".
Could it be it helps divert the plebs, after all covid is becoming less of a news item daily.
Could it be it helps divert the plebs, after all covid is becoming less of a news item daily.
General military doctrine has it that an attacking force needs at least a 3 to 1 advantage. These are the actual combat troops, not the REMFs and other support staff, so if the Russkis are fronting 150k on their frontlines then that would imply that they're expecting 50k or less in opposition.
Such numbers are purely academic though, as the front lines are extremely long and what you're really talking about is several coordinated attacks at key points, rather than a mass attack along the entire length of the border.
Soviet conventional warfare tactics during the Cold War were heavily biased towards overwhelming the opposition with large numbers of armoured forces and heavily mechanised infantry, all moving extremely quickly and punching through the enemy in a series of pincer movements. They worked on the basis that NATO couldn't sustain the attrition rate for long and so their preferred odds were more like 5 to 1.
So if they attack using similar tactics then to overwhelm the Ukrainian armed forces wherever they attack would mean that there should be significantly more troops on the borders of the Ukraine than we're getting told.
Has anyone looked into the reasons why Putin wants a chunk of the Ukraine apart from the fact that it used to be part of Russia?
To my mind its purely economic as the Ukraine has vast natural resources Putin wants to get his hands on, that includes gas, coal, precious metals and a great long list of things that can be dug up and sold at vast profit ... also they have large and impressive if slightly basic agriculture that produces vast amounts of foodstuffs which would be welcome in a struggling Russia
The warmonger isn't fooling anyone when he says that he does not want a border with a NATO country and is bothered by the Ukraine joining, without doubt he wants to rule the whole area which would give him exactly what he claims not to want (a border with a nato country) .... the bloke is full of it and his yes men are too afraid of the gulag to oppose him
Any room for a little one in that bunker Cougar377 ?
To my mind its purely economic as the Ukraine has vast natural resources Putin wants to get his hands on, that includes gas, coal, precious metals and a great long list of things that can be dug up and sold at vast profit ... also they have large and impressive if slightly basic agriculture that produces vast amounts of foodstuffs which would be welcome in a struggling Russia
The warmonger isn't fooling anyone when he says that he does not want a border with a NATO country and is bothered by the Ukraine joining, without doubt he wants to rule the whole area which would give him exactly what he claims not to want (a border with a nato country) .... the bloke is full of it and his yes men are too afraid of the gulag to oppose him
Any room for a little one in that bunker Cougar377 ?
Yes mate, on condition that you bring your armoury too. I don't think I can hold them off with just an air rifle and a kukri.
Don't worry....he has 2 pairs of heated socks.
A Rusky winter will be a piece of cake.
War is always fundamentally about acquiring resources, regardless of how it is dressed up.
In terms of negotiating Russia knows it has the West over a barrel (no pun intended) as a major oil producer and exporter…….. at the moment. With the passing of time this will be less of a card to play as the planet edges, albeit slowly, toward less reliance on fossil fuels.
In terms of negotiating Russia knows it has the West over a barrel (no pun intended) as a major oil producer and exporter…….. at the moment. With the passing of time this will be less of a card to play as the planet edges, albeit slowly, toward less reliance on fossil fuels.